Catena Media expects third-quarter revenue to fall 29% to EUR 8.3m and will book a non-cash impairment of EUR 30-35m on intangible assets, the gambling affiliate said in a preliminary trading statement, blaming a rapid shift in how people search for brands online.

The Stockholm-listed group said revenue for the quarter compared with EUR 11.6m a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA fell to EUR 0.7m from EUR 2.9m, and that figure was flattered by the reversal of EUR 0.7m in accruals made earlier in the year for the 2026 employee bonus programme. Without the reversal, the group would have broken even at the adjusted EBITDA level.

Revenue for the first nine months was EUR 30.1m against EUR 31.0m a year earlier, with adjusted EBITDA of EUR 4.6m (EUR 5.2m). The figures are preliminary and unaudited.

Growth target abandoned

Catena Media said it no longer expects to reach its target of double-digit organic growth in group revenue and adjusted EBITDA in 2026. The impairment, to be recognised in the third quarter under IAS 36, reflects lower expected earnings from the group’s website assets.

The company pointed to three pressures. Generative search continued to change how users discover brands, cutting new traffic across the affiliate industry. Its traditional search rankings declined, which it attributed both to AI-assisted personalised search and to search engines elevating “lower-relevancy content”. Some operators also cut marketing budgets during the usual summer slowdown.

The business model amplified the hit. More than 90% of Catena Media’s new customers are acquired under cost-per-acquisition deals, the group said in its statement, leaving it with little recurring revenue share income to cushion a fall in referrals.

“This was a weak quarter and our results reflect that,” chief executive Manuel Stan said. “The search landscape is undergoing a rapid and fundamental shift, and as a predominantly CPA-based business our results reflect the effects of these changes immediately and in full.”

TraffiqX and prediction markets

Stan said the results reinforced the strategy set out in the second quarter, which is to reduce dependence on search. That includes diversifying revenue through the group’s TraffiqX project, a new platform it plans to launch in the first quarter of 2027, and moving into new verticals such as prediction markets. The group is also investing in customer loyalty programmes to strengthen its brands.

The prediction markets push follows a wider rush among US-facing affiliates to promote Kalshi, Polymarket and the new prediction products from sportsbooks, which are available in states where conventional sports betting is not legal. Affiliate deals in that space have tended to pay CPA, which would not by itself solve the recurring-revenue problem Catena Media identified.

An industry-wide squeeze

Catena Media’s warning is the starkest yet of a pressure felt across listed gambling affiliates. Fellow listed affiliate Gentoo Media cut its 2026 guidance again earlier this month, although it blamed Brazil’s betting ban rather than search. AI overviews and chatbot answers increasingly satisfy queries such as “best online casino” without a click, while search engines’ treatment of affiliate content has been volatile through a series of core updates. Larger peers have responded by buying media brands, shifting to paid media and expanding into sports content to reduce reliance on organic search.

The group, headquartered in Malta and employing more than 150 people, has already gone through a restructuring that included a new operating model and cost cuts earlier this year. It will publish its full third-quarter report on 10 November, followed by a webcast.

Kambi Group has signed a multi-year online sportsbook partnership with QuinnBet, moving the UK and Irish bookmaker onto its Turnkey Sportsbook as the operator prepares for what it calls its next phase of growth.

Under the agreement, announced on Monday, QuinnBet will migrate to Kambi’s full end-to-end product, covering the front end, Bet Builder, AI-assisted trading and risk management, and regulatory support. Kambi will integrate with QuinnBet’s chosen player account management platform, Pragmatic Solutions, rather than supplying the PAM itself.

Neither company disclosed financial terms, the length of the contract or a migration date. Kambi said in its announcement that the deal would support QuinnBet’s online ambitions in the UK and Ireland while leaving room to expand into other regulated jurisdictions, subject to licensing and regulatory approval.

Racing, football and darts

The supplier pitched the deal around the sports that drive betting in QuinnBet’s home markets, naming horse racing, football and darts. Racing in particular is a demanding product for any sportsbook platform in the UK and Ireland, where pricing, early prices, best odds guaranteed and in-running markets are table stakes for a credible bookmaker.

QuinnBet will also plug into Kambi’s network of more than 70 operator partners. Kambi argues that data from that network gives each partner an edge on pricing, trading performance and product development, which is the core of its sales case against in-house builds and rival platform providers.

Kambi chief executive Werner Becher said QuinnBet had “a strong presence in the UK and Ireland and ambitious plans to expand into new jurisdictions”, adding that the deal was “another testament to Kambi’s position as the partner of choice” for operators competing in regulated markets.

QuinnBet chief executive Brenda Quinn called the partnership “a significant milestone” for the business. “We wanted a sportsbook partner with world-class technology, trading expertise and flexibility to support our ambitions, while giving us the tools to deliver an engaging experience for our customers,” she said.

A busy stretch for Kambi

The QuinnBet agreement adds to a run of contract wins and renewals for the Nasdaq First North-listed supplier this year. Kambi extended its deal with Peruvian operator Olimpo.bet last month and signed a multi-year deal with CBN in Latin America in May, alongside renewals with long-standing partners including Rush Street Interactive, Churchill Downs and Swedish operator ATG. Its partner list also includes Bally’s Corporation, Hard Rock Digital, LiveScore Group and Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation.

Kambi has been buying back its own shares on a weekly basis through October, according to its regulatory filings, as it continues to rebuild investor confidence after losing several large US partners to in-house platforms in recent years. New mid-sized European operators such as QuinnBet are an increasingly important part of that pipeline.

QuinnBet’s position

QuinnBet operates online sportsbook and gaming products for customers in the UK and Ireland and has been a regular sponsor of English football clubs, including AFC Bournemouth and Millwall. Its decision to move to a third-party turnkey platform reflects a wider trend among smaller UK operators, which face rising compliance costs, the new stake limits on online slots and affordability checks, and pressure on marketing budgets.

For those businesses, outsourcing the sportsbook to a large supplier can lower the cost of trading and risk management while giving access to products, such as same-game multis, that would be expensive to build alone. The trade-off is less control over the core product and a revenue share paid to the supplier.

The partnership also gives Kambi another foothold in the UK and Irish market at a time when operators are preparing for the new, higher remote betting duty due in April 2027. Neither company gave a launch date for the migrated sportsbook.

Sun International has introduced a voluntary responsible gambling charter that keeps its advertising off air during school-run and after-school hours. It also bars social grant and student-aid recipients from opening online accounts. South Africa’s largest casino group is positioning itself ahead of tighter national rules on online betting.

The charter, launched at an event in Sandton on 13 October, covers Sun International’s land-based casinos and its online brand SunBet, which operates in South Africa, Namibia and Botswana. The full document is published on the group’s website.

Advertising watersheds

The headline commitment is a watershed. Sun International will not run time-dependent broadcast or display gambling adverts between 06:00 and 08:00 or between 12:00 and 18:00, the windows when children are most likely to be watching. South African regulation sets no such watershed, and the company says the measure “goes beyond regulatory requirements”.

The group will also avoid any platform, channel or programme where most of the audience is under the legal gambling age, at any time of day. It will devote 10% of its gambling advertising content to responsible gambling messaging. Separate age-targeting and audience standards will apply to social media, search, push notifications and email.

Grant recipients excluded

The most unusual measure targets the source of players’ funds. SunBet’s registration form will list recipients of SASSA social grants and NSFAS student funding as options under “source of income”, and accounts will not be activated if either is selected. The check relies on self-declaration: Bengtsson told BusinessDay that the company has no access to SASSA or NSFAS records.

Other commitments include identity, age and address checks at registration and withdrawal, one verified account per person, and deposit limits, reality checks, cooling-off and self-exclusion tools accessible from the SunBet homepage. The group plans to add data analytics and AI-supported behavioural monitoring to flag at-risk players, which the trade press reported will start in 2027. It will also seek certification from an international responsible gambling body and introduce an annual external audit.

On governance, a responsible gambling steering committee will report quarterly to the executive committee, with oversight from the board’s social and ethics committee. Four measures tied to player protection, training, marketing and compliance will feed into the executive performance scorecard.

Regulatory backdrop

The timing is not accidental. National Treasury has proposed a 20% national tax on online gambling revenue, and Bengtsson said the government is preparing new gambling legislation. A wider ban on gambling advertising has also been floated in public debate. The National Gambling Board is procuring technology to block unlicensed operators, and BusinessDay cited estimates that illegal online gambling takes in around R50bn a year.

Bengtsson used the launch to warn against measures that tilt the field towards offshore sites. “Rules or taxes that make licensed operators less competitive than offshore sites will push players towards platforms where they have no protection,” he said, as reported by iGaming Business.

Regulators were supportive but cautious. Gauteng economic development MEC Vuyiswa Ramokgopa welcomed the voluntary advertising hours but said: “The charter must complement the work of the regulator. It does not replace it.” She added that the province is reviewing its gambling legislation.

SunBet is now a material part of the group. Its income rose 75.9% to R2.1bn in the year to December 2025, according to BusinessDay. A self-imposed code gives Sun International a template to put in front of policymakers. Whether rivals follow, or whether lawmakers write similar watersheds into national rules, will shape how much it costs the group competitively.