Opinion & Featured
EXCLUSIVE: AI & BETTING INTELLIGENCE WITH LORENZO MALANGA OF MERCURIUS
Exclusive interview with Lorenzo Malanga, Chairman and CRO of Mercurius – the betting intelligence company using AI to create alternative sports betting asset class.
With AI and Big Data starting to deliver predictions of unprecedented accuracy, we thought it would be an opportune moment to catch up Lorenzo Malanga, Chairman and CRO of Mercurius – the betting intelligence company.
Mercurius conducts data processing and analysis, undertakes scientific research on sports models, implements strategies and risk optimisation, and offers execution and automation – enabling a new alternative asset class based on sports betting.
Sports betting is, logically speaking, just as valid as an investment strategy as stocks or FX, but have you encountered much negativity from the close-minded, more conservative commentators out there?
Generally speaking, we have very polarised reactions: either they love it and they go crazy for it or they stop listening as soon as I mention betting. Science applied to sports betting is naturally fascinating many people coming from different backgrounds and social levels; in particular, people coming from a financial background. This happens because our approach is based on the same principles and methods used in quantitative finance, which makes it easy for them to grasp the essence of what we do and why it makes sense.
Actually, our biggest challenge, more than negativity, is to overcome biases. For the very same reasons why it is easy to understand why sports betting can be considered an alternative investment, people’s judgement is clouded by the perception of gambling and it takes a while to fully understand the peculiarities of this market.
Looking at your price plans, we’d assume most of your clients are individuals, but are you getting interest from corporate or institutional investors?
Today we have two types of clients, who are both individuals. On one side, sports traders who are looking for a new betting strategy, often because we cover leagues they don’t or simply because they can add a source of income without requiring any extra effort. On the other side we have sophisticated investors who want to diversify their investment portfolio with a truly uncorrelated asset and with interesting returns. Let’s also not forget that earnings on sports betting in many countries are tax-free.
We have started discussions with institutional investors, and they seem very interested in this new opportunity, but in order to work with them, we have to set up a fully regulated investment fund vehicle first. It is not something that will happen this year, but in 2020 we’re planning to start a partnership with a financial firm to merge forces and create an investment fund based on our technology.
Though your business model is good for betting exchanges, isn’t it potentially fatal for the traditional bookmakers? What would you say to those businesses?
It is not an easy topic. Betting exchanges reshaped the industry, and the new exchanges based on blockchain could challenge the rules again. At the same time, some sportsbooks are adapting and they’re moving to a business model based on lower margins and higher turnover. At the end of the day, the real war is on the ability to attract the biggest liquidity, and sportsbooks and exchanges are very interconnected on this. When we started Mercurius we also thought sportsbooks were doomed to disappear, but the more we got to know this industry and the more we understood it won’t happen.
I was once told by a very skilled gambler and entrepreneur “In this industry there are no competitors, only potential partners”, and I believe it is indeed the key to understanding this market and the opportunity for Mercurius.
Given that you’re not an operator, or a supplier as such, what’s your relationship with regulators and authorities like?
It’s 100% transparent and we are fully compliant with regulations, more specifically we’re not required to hold a gambling license because we’re part of the Betfair Vendor Program.
We spent a lot of time looking for the leanest regulatory setup to safely offer a product that is easy to use and fully automated. After long research, we found in Betfair exchange the perfect solution and partner; we joined their software vendor program, and this gave us the opportunity to package our technology into a third party application for Betfair. Our customers have all their trading funds in their Betfair wallet, and use Mercurius as an automation tool to simplify their trading activity by leveraging on our Artificial Intelligence.
Given the rapid advances in Big Data and AI, where do you think predictive models will be in ten years from now? Will widespread quantum computing be the game-changer many say?
Well, you are asking me to make a meta-prediction! The evidence we have so far clearly suggest the evolution of such tech is not linear, but I’ll try to make some educated guesses.
Complex and Small Data vs Big Data:
A major accomplishment will be to be able to generalize hidden relationships among variables by requiring less and less data: even Eric Schmidt, Alphabet’s executive chairman, says that AI may usher in the era of small data because smarter systems should learn more with less training.
Improved unsupervised algorithms:
In machine learning, unsupervised algorithms are employed to make predictions from datasets when only input data is available without corresponding output variables. Whereas in supervised learning the output of the algorithm is already known, its unsupervised counterpart is closely associated with true artificial intelligence—the concept that a machine can learn to identify complicated processes and patterns without any direct human intervention. When algorithms are left alone to scour and present the interesting patterns in a dataset, hidden patterns or groupings can be discovered, which could have been difficult to get using supervised methods. In the coming years, we are likely to see improvements in unsupervised machine learning algorithms. The advancements in developing better algorithms will result in faster and more accurate machine learning predictions.
Quantum Computing:
Let’s first make a clear disclaimer. Like any other technological improvement, it is not going to be a one-fits-all solution for every problem. Yet, if quantum computers are integrated into machine learning, it could lead to faster processing of data, which could accelerate the ability to synthesize information and draw insights—and that’s is what the future holds for us. Quantum-powered systems could provide a much faster and more heavy-duty computation to both supervised and unsupervised algorithms. The increased performance will unlock amazing machine learning capabilities, which may not have been realized using classical computers and hardware.
As blockchain, AI and Big Data evolve, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the obvious weakness in most strategic planning has always been human bias and emotion. Of course, it’s not really a revelation considering some of the visionary writers like HG Wells and HP Lovecraft were saying this more than a century ago. But, how does it feel to be in the vanguard of companies that are finally overcoming this?
It’s become conventional wisdom to say and conclude that Artificial Intelligence could somehow replace us humans in the near future. But if you don’t understand enough how computers actually work, you may draw flawed conclusions. If you’re a pessimist about the future taking over us I think you watch too much Hollywood Sci-fi movies.
First of all, decision making can be improved by AI by enriching the interaction between human and algorithms, rather than replacing the latter with the former.
Moreover, let’s not forget Feynman’s wise words: “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself — and you are the easiest person to fool”. So, let’s not fool ourselves with fideistic optimism. Bias is intrinsic in any model and it is thus mandatory to always be aware of the assumptions we make when tackling problems and to always challenge ourselves and our thinking process. That being said, removing emotion (or better, irrationality) might be a different story and I do believe that a fully data-driven approach can help in avoiding common pitfalls. In fact, AI and big data can help in decision making in considering every micro pattern and to give you an enhanced and more “truthful” representation of the phenomenon at hand.
However many data points are analyzed, can AI ever take into account human fallibilities? Isn’t this individual emotional history, which we all have, the thing that will forever make humans unpredictable?
In my humble opinion, we can only strive to predict specific behaviours in particular contexts, as our stream of consciousness is a noisy, unstructured and unobservable dataset. Plus, unpredictability is the other side of natural variability and has to be embraced rather than fought!
What would you say to those interested in pursuing a career in data science?
Well, I would say the first thing is to commit to continuous self-improvement and adopt a curiosity-driven mindset.
You should reach a solid understanding of math and statistic, in order to get solid foundations; but learning all the theory is not enough, being a data scientist requires getting your hands dirty to code and acquiring a good understanding of how computers work.
A critical – and undervalued- activity is to deeply understand your data before doing any modelling, which often helps you understand how to clean it and manipulate in a way which is optimal for the answers you want to find.
Like I said above, be rigorous and do not fool yourself, challenge your assumptions all the time and be sceptical about too good to be true outcomes, because they usually are.
Last, but not the least, learn to communicate in the most effective and impactful way to a nontechnical audience, as every result that lives only on your computer is useless.
Where do you see Mercurius in five years?
Apart from partnering up with investment firms on the commercial/business side, we’ll keep pushing the technological frontier. In 5 years Mercurius will integrate advanced computer vision techniques to increase the number of data points processed, as well as applying the know-how developed in modelling soccer in other sports like tennis and basket.
I also believe e-sports to be the next big thing in betting and we’ll invest heavily in modelling e-players just like we do now for soccer players.
Sport integrity is another aspect we would like to contribute in the future by providing our global football knowledge to sports integrity stakeholders, in order to detect and advise on anomalies and integrity concerns.
A huge ‘thank you’ to Lorenzo for taking the time to share his valuable and unique insights into such a fascinating subject! We hope you enjoyed reading it, and we’ll be sure to keep up with the Mercurius team as they blaze a trail into the future.
Find out more about Mercurius Tradr, the first app for theBetfair Exchange able to analyse sports, find the edge and bet for you at https://trader.mercurius.io/
Meet the Mercurius team and learn more about the company at https://mercurius.io
Exclusive interview content © Pentagon Digital Limited, all rights reserved.
Blockchain company GigLabs has announced a US$4.5 million seed round led by Dapper Labs and Panoramic Ventures.
Other investors participating in the round include Collab+Currency, Red Beard Ventures, Eterna Capital, Alumni Venture Group, Gaingels, and Amino Capital. The caliber and variety of investors participating in this round demonstrates broad support for GigLabs to be the leading provider of infrastructure for brands, creators and collectors to build memorable experiences through NFTs.
“At GigLabs, we firmly believe that every brand will have an NFT strategy in the future,” said Douglas Dimola, CEO and co-founder of GigLabs. “This funding enables us to expand the talent of our team to continue expanding our offerings to meet current and future demand, while also working with the best and brightest partners to continue to push this new innovation forward.”
NFTs have increased in popularity with the market reaching billions in trading and sales volume. As NFTs continue to rapidly see mainstream adoption, with major sports leagues, media outlets and prestige auction houses participating in projects, brands are increasingly seeking to get involved—but they need reliable partners to navigate the significant technical complexities when integrating NFT projects into enterprise level organizations.
GigLabs’ technology is championed by some of the biggest names in entertainment, giving customers access to emergent Web3 innovations. GigLabs’ solutions enable brands and creators to launch new NFT projects with customizable branded storefronts and marketplaces, as well as metaverse experiences for their communities. In addition, GigLabs has pioneered transferring NFTs to fans while at live events, all through a QR code.
GigLabs’ platform allows enterprise brands to build lasting relationships with consumers and create customized and personalized experiences through NFTs that live on the Flow blockchain. Major brand partners supported by the GigLabs platform include CNN, Turner Sports, Bleacher Report, Speedway Motorsports’ RaceDay NFT—the first-ever NASCAR-related NFT, University of Miami’s Canes Vault, Athletes Unlimited and others. This funding round will allow the company to build out its team and scale to accelerate customer growth.
“GigLabs continues to impress through the team’s ability to develop the technology solutions needed for any brand to build a powerful NFT experience,” said Roham Gharegozlou, CEO of Dapper Labs. “It’s awesome to see the world’s leading brands building on Flow and supercharging their connection to consumers.”
“Sometimes the magic is making it simple to do something complex. GigLabs takes a transformative technology and makes it accessible to companies, organizations and brands of all sizes,” said Paul Judge, Managing Partner of Panoramic Ventures. “We believe in the power of NFTs to combine content, culture, and community and we’re enthusiastic to back GigLabs on this journey.”
GigLabs has built multiple solutions to not only bring brands into the world of NFTs but also to provide onramps into the much broader metaverse. These include NFT Bridge, which is the company’s whitelabeled solution for brands and creators to launch customizable NFT marketplaces directly on their own websites.
The platform also includes a solution that allows for frictionless claiming of NFTs via a QR code while attending live events, a novel way to blend fandom in the physical and virtual worlds. GigLabs has also built RareRooms, a 3D/VR enabled metaverse that allows collectors to curate and showcase their NFTs as well as allow brands to have amazing virtual storefronts and customizable spaces that allow their fans to truly experience their NFTs. Nearly 10,000 RareRooms have been created to display unique, curated sets of NFTs by collectors.
US-based gaming lifestyle brand XSET has partnered with Monster Mash for a Halloween NFT collaboration.
The partnership will see several XSET players feature as creatures on Monster Mash, which is home to 10,000 randomly generated monsters drawn by artist Vance Kelly. Each of the XSET branded digital ghouls is made up of over 400 traits and will haunt the Ethereum blockchain for eternity.
“Monster Mash has been making a lot of noise in the NFT space, who doesn’t like Monsters right?” said Greg Selkoe, co-founder and CEO of XSET. “So we decided to make this XSET’s first NFT collab. We know that the fans of both brands are going to be excited to collect these super-rare pieces.”
“I think it’s really exciting to be working with XSET to add another integral layer to the Monster Mash brand with the inclusion of XSET’s players as some of the Monsters themselves. It widens our Monster universe and brings it into today’s cultural world,” says Hugo Stevenson, founder and CEO of Road Crates, Inc.
Owners of Monster NFTs are able to access the metaverse members-only world of MM Express, featuring a creative community platform for building new monsters for future air drops, live, in-person events, killer merchandise, and much more. Each unique NFT is stored as ERC-721 tokens on the Ethereum Blockchain and hosted on IPFS, and can be purchased for 0.08 ETH + gas fees.
According to XSET, the branded monster NFTs are just the first of a number of upcoming initiatives, with more details to be announced in the near future.
Staying with XSET, earlier this month, the brand announced the beta launch of StreamJ, a new digital rights management (DRM) and license-free music platform specifically designed for gaming streamers and creators.
Sipher, a gaming studio that pioneers blockchain technology, has announced the closure of its US$6.8 million seed round, co-led by Arrington Capital, Hashed and Konvoy Ventures.
The funding will be used to accelerate the development of its upcoming World of Sipheria game and continue to build the tools needed to create compelling, fun and engaging gaming experiences based on blockchain technology.
In addition to the leading backers, Sipher further attracted the participation of backers including Defiance Capital, Signum Capital, Dragonfly Capital, CMT Digital, BITKRAFT Ventures, Delphi Digital, Alameda Research, Fenbushi Capital, Sfermion, Hyperchain, GBV, Kyber Network, Coin98 Ventures, YGG and Merit Circle. The company also welcomed notable angels including Holly Liu (Kabam), Kun Gao (Crunchy Roll) and Alex Svanevik (Nansen.ai).
Founded by prominent Vietnamese CEO Nguyen Trung Tin, who counts accolades such as inclusion on Forbes’ prestigious 30-Under-30 list upon an enviable CV, and has set Sipher on a mission to unify state of the art blockchain tech, artwork, storytelling, multiplayer gaming with decentralized financial technologies.
The company’s vision is to create an expansive world that will attract and keep the player base engaged for years to come as new worlds, characters and factions are introduced. Sipher is fostering an ecosystem where people can play for fun while also being rewarded for their time spent in-game. By leveraging blockchain technology, Sipher is bringing economic freedom to gamers and providing the community with ownership of in-game assets which directly contributes to the growth and success of the gaming industry.
“First and foremost, games are meant to be fun,” Tin says. “They are meant to be social. They are meant to invigorate, excite and bring people together for a common purpose, to enjoy time spent with each other. This is true for the most classic and for the most futurist of games. This is what makes games the most powerful medium for sharing and discovering amazing moments together.”
Backer Jason Chapman of Konvoy Ventures agrees, saying: “Gaming is the new social square and is driving the development of global culture. Tin and the whole Sipher team are helping pioneer a new wave within this social arena, one where players are rewarded for their time, performance, and creativity. Gaming has always been home to creators, thinkers, and competitors and it is time that we see games show their communities financial loyalty. There are more than 3 billion people playing games across the globe and less than 0.1% of gamers are experiencing direct profit sharing. Sipher is renegotiating what players should expect from their games and is here to bring joy to their players both through entertainment and financial freedom. The whole Konvoy team is thrilled to be in Sipher’s corner as we build this new era of games.”
This community spirit is echoed in the huge uptake of Sipher’s Discord community, which already numbers over 60,000, and in the enthusiastic response to its early character launches. Siphers’s first playable NFT character, Sipherian Surge, was a drop of 10,000 genesis Sipher Inu NFTs were bought in less than 15 minutes and are now available for trading and secondary purchase on OpenSea.
Sipher’s next priority is launching the playable MVP of the first gaming experience in the World of Sipheria. The experience will introduce a cooperative dungeon game mode that will onboard new waves of native and non-native blockchain users through beautiful design and graphics, compelling gameplay, expansive world lore hidden with secrets to be discovered and the ability to take part in the game economy. It is also preparing to release its second collection called the Sipherian Flash, a drop of 10,000 limited Sipher Nekos as playable characters.
Excited by the prospects Sipher offers, backer Michael Arrington of Arrington Capital stated: “We believe that the world of Sipheria will be one of the most exciting and adventurous experiences inside the Metaverse. Sipher builds on innovative P2E economics while leveraging both the spirit of crypto culture and mainstream gaming. The art blends a futuristic world of sci-fi and captivating animals, it is internet-native and inspiring, a game that everyone can fall in love with. We believe that Metaverse gaming will unlock a new economic frontier where users can reap the rewards of their time and creativity, and we fundamentally believe in the passion and energy behind Tin and his team. We believe that Sipher is positioned to capture and captivate users across all regions of the world. We are excited to back Sipher and join the world of Sipheria.”
Endorsing these sentiments and stating his faith in the Sipher team and its leadership, co-investor Kyuntae Ethan Kim, Managing Partner of Hashed, who said: “Since 2018, Hashed has been actively investing in blockchain games and metaverse with our strong thesis on virtual worlds. We think the virtual world economy will be much bigger than that of the real world thanks to the blockchain infrastructure providing a key backbone for digital assets. Tin and his team have demonstrated huge potential to become the next major blockchain gaming studio. They not only understand the crypto/blockchain ecosystem, but also have strong ability to implement great quality games. They know the beauty of combining NFT and gaming and have plans to connect esports in their game eventually. I am so excited to co-lead this round and can’t wait to see Sipher’s community grow rapidly.”
AYO.NEWS says:
For years, the dreams of metaverse gaming have been held back by technological limitations and the hesitancy of the mainstream gaming community, but with blockchain now mature and more widely accepted, and investment flowing into the sector, a new revolution really is beginning.
OnChain Studios has announced a US$7.5M seed round led by Andreessen Horowitz with participation from Draper & Associates, CoinFund, Sound Ventures, Dapper Labs, Collab + Currency, WndrCo, and other notable investors.
The NFT studio’s flagship project, Cryptoys, will be launching soon on Flow, and will offer the first-ever fully interactive NFT (non-fungible token) digital toys. In addition to being able to buy, sell, and collect Cryptoys, consumers will also be able to play with them inside an immersive world built on the blockchain. To add depth, each Cryptoy can gain more capabilities as it’s played with more often, continually unlocking new experiences.
Will Weinraub, CEO and Co-Founder of OnChain Studios, explained: “What started off as a side project for my daughter has turned into this amazing company, and I feel blessed to be building it with such an incredible team. The rise of NFTs and blockchain allows us to create new revolutionary experiences that have never been done before. With Cryptoys we are building a rich, expansive world that combines elements of entertainment, gaming, and toys into an experience customers can truly own and take with them forever.”
Arianna Simpson, General Partner, Andreessen Horowitz, added: “Cryptoys is a perfect example of the compelling new NFT gaming and entertainment experiences that are now possible with the advent of web3 — a fully-interactive 3D universe with custom toys for each participant. We’re thrilled to partner with the world-class team at OnChain Studios to bring Cryptoys to life and introduce the joys of NFT gaming to mainstream audiences.”
The first series of drops will consist of an original line of characters, with the Cryptoys universe then expanding from there. The company says “a number of well-known brands” are also looking into ways to leverage the full-stack Cryptoys platform to turn their IP into NFT-based interactive digital toys.
In addition to NFT toys, OnChain Studios is also building an open world experience called The Cryptoyverse, which will allow users to play with their toys in a digital environment, with P2E (play-to-earn) mechanics.
The Cryptoys platform is being built on Flow, the fast, easy-to-use, open blockchain with the biggest and fastest growing NFT marketplace.
Award Pool, the integrated platform that empowers brands, influencers and content creators to power up, grow, and engage communities with gamified play and NFT rewards, has reported “explosive” growth with 115,000 new users signing up and two million page views since its beta launch on 30 September, 2021.
According to the platform, this growth highlights the early success and future potential of the platform and its ability to help brands and content creators gamify campaigns with social and in-game challenges catered to their communities.
In addition, Award Pool will be launching The So.co Challenge, Music Reimagined! as the result of a previously announced partnership with So.co, a curated, image-based media platform that celebrates music, the related lifestyle, and associated cultural content. Together, Award Pool and So.co will promote a new opportunity for connecting musicians with fans by having them participate in challenges to earn points and NFT rewards, which will redefine the best strategies for audience growth and activation.
Reuven Cohen, Founder and CEO of Award Pool, commented:“We are excited to see such opportunity and growth with the Award Pool beta and look forward to offering such opportunities to our partners and clients.”
Award Pool is primarily designed to appeal to digital natives, particularly Gen Z, who appreciate both physical and digital rewards. Because this group doesn’t engage as frequently with traditional advertising channels, brands are having a difficult time connecting in a meaningful way. Award Pool solves this dilemma through its innovative new platform that allows users to participate in challenges, earn points, and redeem non-fungible token (NFT) prizes through an easy-to-use tool.
Award Pool has several additional upcoming challenges, including a partnership with the FC Tulsa football club. Fans will be asked to complete tasks, such as following the club’s profiles on social media and visiting specific pages on the team’s website, for a chance to win valuable NFTs and other prizes.
On 18 October, Crypto Gaming United (CGU) joined Australia-based crypto exchange TimeX, and raised $2.5M in a record-breaking six seconds of public token trading.
Co-founded by Russian-born cryptocurrency, DeFi, and blockchain app entrepreneur Sergei Sergienko, CGU operates on the principles of uber-economy. Instead of players spending money to buy their initial NFT characters, they rent them from the platform in exchange for a share of their daily income. At the same time, the games themselves reward players with income proportionate to their in-game skill and performance.
Before the final open market sale of tokens, CGU had already raised $5M and $10M in seed and pre-IDO rounds respectively. The tokens released during those rounds are subject to a blocking period, with a 3-year rights transfer schedule, meaning that CGU tokens are now only available on the secondary market.
In total, 10 million CGU tokens were made available for sale, priced at $0.25 each. Just six seconds after the market opened, all were sold.
Commenting on the sale, CGU Co-Founder, Sergei Sergienko, said: “Success of every project is always measured by the market. We never expected the demand to be high enough to sell all the tokens in under 6 seconds. This makes it even more pleasant to realize the importance of the gaming crypto platform CGU to the market, and to feel the support coming from the project’s community.”
According to the token emission prospect, the next step for CGU is to increase the number of active players on the platform to the 100,000 mark, while also creating and developing CGU and DAO communities for the project.
Overall, Crypto Gaming United, has now raised $17.5M over three investment rounds, and the total volume of CGU’s emission is 1 billion tokens, 26% of which belong to investors.
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