iGaming
SPAIN’S DGOJ REOPENS RISK-ALGORITHM CONSULTATION AS PAYMENT CHECKS TIGHTEN
Spain’s DGOJ has reopened consultation on a single mandatory model for detecting at-risk players, after data protection changes, while a new royal decree requires operators to match payment method holders to gambling accounts from 28 October.
Spain’s gambling regulator, the Dirección General de Ordenación del Juego (DGOJ), has reopened public consultation on its plan to replace operator-by-operator risk detection with a single, mandatory model that every licensed online operator must run on its customers. The move comes days after the government separately tightened payment checks on online gambling accounts through an amendment to Spain’s anti-money laundering regulation.
The DGOJ published the notice on 13 October, inviting comments on a revised draft resolution approving the “mechanism for detecting risk behaviour” among players. Submissions must be sent to the regulator’s Subdirectorate General for Gambling Regulation between 14 and 22 October 2026, seven working days.
Second round after data protection review
The draft was first put out for consultation between 28 August and 25 September 2025. According to an agreement signed by director general Mikel Arana on 9 October, a second round was needed after the Spanish Data Protection Agency (AEPD) issued report 015/2026 on 15 June 2026, prompting changes mainly to how personal data is handled and to players’ rights to information and review.
The regulator said the amendments do not alter the mechanism’s purpose or essential elements, and justified the shortened deadline by the earlier consultation and the publication of a consolidated text with an explanatory note.
According to that note, the DGOJ has produced a data protection impact assessment, limited the model to a closed set of data drawn from activity on the operator’s platform, and excluded external sources, clinical data, questionnaires and personal communications. Operators would be barred from using the data, the calculated variables or the resulting risk categorisation for commercial, promotional, advertising, segmentation, profitability or credit purposes, and must keep the processing functionally separate from their other systems.
Players flagged as at risk would receive more information about the result and could ask the operator to review the underlying data, the calculation and the measures applied, with a further complaint route to the DGOJ. The regulator would also carry out periodic evaluations and could revise variables, rules or thresholds if it detects loss of effectiveness or recurring errors.
How the model works
The underlying design is unchanged. Under the technical annex to the draft, operators must run a model trained and supplied by the DGOJ, based on the XGBoost gradient-boosted decision tree technique, across all of each player’s accounts during the first seven days of every calendar month. The model looks back over a 183-day window and uses 48 standardised variables built from deposits, withdrawals, stakes, winnings, session data and self-exclusion requests.
Sporadic players are exempt, while some patterns trigger an automatic risk classification without further checks. Any player whose predicted probability meets or exceeds a fixed threshold of 0.3312868 is categorised as at risk. That status triggers the safer gambling measures required under Royal Decree 176/2023 for at least six months, and is lifted only if a later monthly run no longer detects risk. The resolution would take effect two months after its publication in the Boletín Oficial del Estado (BOE).
The project has drawn resistance from the industry. Online gambling associations Jdigital and AEJAD lodged objections with the European Commission earlier this year, arguing, according to Spanish trade reports, that a single algorithm ignores differences between betting, poker and casino, risks high rates of false positives and imposes significant adaptation costs. AEJAD described the model as a “black box”.
Payment ownership checks from 28 October
Separately, Royal Decree 813/2026, approved by the Council of Ministers on 6 October on the proposal of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Business and published in the BOE on 8 October, amends Article 21 of the regulation implementing Law 10/2010 on the prevention of money laundering. For online gambling operators, verifying a customer’s identity will now require checking that the holder of the payment method used for deposits and withdrawals is the holder of the gambling account.
The decree enters into force on 28 October 2026. Players already registered with an operator will have six months to make the changes needed for the check to be carried out. During that period they can keep depositing with their existing payment methods and keep playing, but they cannot withdraw winnings.
If the check has not been completed when the six months expire, operators must unilaterally terminate the contract, notify the DGOJ and return the player’s balance, including any winnings withheld in the meantime. Operators get the same six-month period to adapt their technical systems.
The two measures add to a heavy compliance agenda for Spanish licensees, which are also preparing for the joint cross-operator deposit limits approved by the government in June. Once the consultation closes on 22 October, the DGOJ will review submissions before finalising the resolution, while operators face a 28 April 2027 deadline to bring existing customers’ payment methods into line.
iGaming
BETMGM Q3 REVENUE RISES 7% AS ADJUSTED EBITDA MORE THAN DOUBLES
BetMGM grew Q3 2026 net revenue 7% to $710m and more than doubled Adjusted EBITDA to $86m, but still expects to finish 2026 at the lower end of guidance as prediction markets squeeze US sports betting.
BetMGM, the US online sports betting and iGaming joint venture of MGM Resorts International and Entain, grew net revenue by 7% to $710m in the third quarter of 2026 and more than doubled Adjusted EBITDA, according to a business update published on 13 October. The company reiterated its full-year guidance but again said it expects to finish towards the lower end of both ranges.
Adjusted EBITDA rose 112% to $86m, from $41m in the third quarter of 2025, while contribution increased 32% to $175m. The company described the period as a strong quarter in which disciplined execution continued to drive profitable growth.
iGaming carries the business
iGaming net revenue rose 6% year on year to $483m, roughly two thirds of the group total. Online sports net revenue grew 7% to $216m on handle of $3.24bn, up 3%, with the company citing a World Cup engagement boost and an upgraded sportsbook ahead of the NFL season. Retail and other revenue was flat at $11m.
Average monthly active players fell 3% to 878,000, from 902,000 a year earlier, meaning growth came from higher spend per player rather than a larger customer base. BetMGM put its share of gross gaming revenue across its active markets at around 14%, made up of about 20% in iGaming and 8% in online sports.
For the first nine months of 2026, net revenue rose 5% to $2.12bn and Adjusted EBITDA climbed 24% to $185m. iGaming revenue for the period was up 8% at $1.45bn, while online sports increased 4% to $647m.
The joint venture returned $68m in cash to its parents during the quarter, comprising $18m in parent fees and $50m in distributions to Entain and MGM Resorts. Capital expenditure was $4m in the quarter and $26m year to date.
Among operational highlights, BetMGM pointed to its multi-product launch in Alberta, where it said per-player metrics were trending above those it recorded at launch in Ontario. It also said new Game of Thrones titles, rolled out across the US, Ontario and Alberta, had been its most successful game franchise launch, and that a refresh of the Borgata brand had lifted average daily actives by 28%.
Guidance and prediction markets
BetMGM kept its 2026 guidance of $2.9bn to $3.1bn in net revenue and $300m to $350m in Adjusted EBITDA, and said it remained on track to land towards the lower end of both. The revenue range had already been cut from $3.1bn to $3.2bn when the company reported its first quarter in April. The company said it remains confident of reaching $500m in Adjusted EBITDA in the coming years.
The cautious outlook reflects pressure from federally regulated prediction markets, which have been spending heavily to acquire sports customers in the US. On the earnings call, chief executive Adam Greenblatt said the competitive environment remained intense and that BetMGM had narrowed its marketing to iGaming, multi-product states and higher-value players, pulling back acquisition spend in sportsbook-only markets. According to reports of the call, he said the company had meaningfully reduced direct online sportsbook acquisition spending over several quarters while holding its 8% share of sports GGR.
Greenblatt said he expects the competitive pressure to last until at least mid-2027, and that he hopes the US Supreme Court will settle whether states can regulate sports event contracts during its 2026-27 term. The court has not yet decided whether to hear the dispute, although the NFL and the American Gaming Association are among the parties urging it to do so. Greenblatt noted that most lower-court cases have gone in favour of states, attorneys general and tribes.
“I think the key test is whether this was the intent of Congress, and I think that that will be shown to not be the case,” Greenblatt told analysts.
He also played down a recent Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposal to exclude casino-style event contracts from the definition of a swap, arguing that the regulator could reverse the change as easily as it made it, and that the risk to BetMGM’s iGaming business had not gone away.
What comes next
The figures are unaudited and have not been reviewed by the company’s independent accountants. Entain is due to report its own third-quarter trading on 15 October, with MGM Resorts following on 28 October. With iGaming now generating most of its revenue and contribution, BetMGM’s results are increasingly tied to the small number of states that permit online casino, while its sports business waits on a Supreme Court decision that may not arrive before mid-2027.
iGaming
BETFRED TURNOVER HITS £995.6M AS ONLINE NEARS HALF OF GROUP REVENUE
Betfred’s latest accounts show turnover of £995.6m for the 52 weeks to 29 March 2026, with online growing to 45% of the business as retail’s share fell to 55%.
Betfred generated turnover of £995.6m in the 52 weeks to 29 March 2026, according to its latest accounts filed at Companies House, with its online business now accounting for close to half of the group’s revenue.
Retail contributed 55% of turnover in the period, down from 61% a year earlier, with online making up the remaining 45%. The shift continues a long-running rebalancing for the family-owned bookmaker, which built its business on the high street.
The group traces its roots to a single shop opened by brothers Fred and Peter Done in Salford in 1967, and it remains privately controlled by the Done family. It grew into one of the largest retail estates in British betting, adding the Tote in 2011, and has since built out its online sportsbook and casino to compete with the listed groups that dominate UK digital betting.
A change of year-end
The headline numbers are not directly comparable with the prior set of accounts. Betfred moved its year-end from September to March, so the comparative period covers 78 weeks to 30 March 2025. On a like-for-like 12-month basis, group turnover rose by £23.3m, according to the filing as reported by the trade press. Management attributed part of the growth to higher marketing spend aimed at increasing market share and attracting new customers.
Gross profit for the year came in at £719.9m. Operating profit was £74.1m after a one-off £4.6m charge for aborted acquisition costs, and EBITDA was £140.6m. Profit after tax was £39.6m, as reported by SBC News.
Exceptional charges totalled £7.1m, including the aborted deal and £801,000 of closure costs for a foreign subsidiary linked to the US business the group wound down in 2023-24. Betfred had earlier sold its Spanish online business, booking a £1.6m profit on the disposal.
Costs and headcount
Employee costs rose by £19.2m on a like-for-like basis, driven largely by minimum wage increases. Employee numbers edged down to 7,795 from 7,872. The group’s tax charge fell to £24.4m from £59.8m in the longer prior period.
Betfred again declined to provide a geographical breakdown of earnings, with directors stating that doing so would be “severely prejudicial to the interests of the group”.
Tax pressure ahead
The accounts close just before the rise in Remote Gaming Duty to 40%, which took effect in April 2026, so the hit to the online business is not yet reflected in the numbers. The remote betting rate of General Betting Duty is due to rise in April 2027.
The bigger risk for Betfred sits in its shops. Founder Fred Done has been one of the most vocal opponents of a proposed doubling of Machine Games Duty, telling the Financial Times that such a rise would lead the business to close 495 shops within a year, costing 2,575 jobs. In August, Betfred said it was consulting on the possible closure of up to 132 UK shops as part of its response to the tax changes already announced.
The Betting and Gaming Council has warned this week that raising MGD to 40% could cost up to 16,000 jobs across the sector. With retail still producing the majority of Betfred’s turnover, the outcome of the Budget will weigh heavily on whether the online shift accelerates by choice or by force.
iGaming
YOUTUBE OPENS MASTHEAD TO CERTIFIED ONLINE GAMBLING ADVERTISERS
Google will let certified online gambling advertisers buy YouTube Masthead placements from 21 October, extending an existing allowance for sports betting while excluding unlicensed affiliates.
Google will allow certified online gambling advertisers to run campaigns in YouTube’s Masthead, the premium placement at the top of the YouTube home feed, from 21 October 2026.
The change was set out in a Google Ads policy notice posted on 7 October. It extends an allowance that already covered sports betting, opening the slot to online gambling operators that hold certification under Google’s Gambling and games policy.
Who qualifies
Eligibility rests on certification. Operators must be certified for the relevant market, and every ad must still comply with the wider Gambling and games policy as well as local legal, jurisdictional and age restrictions.
The notice explicitly excludes advertisers in Google’s online gambling-promoting content category that are not subject to mandatory state or national gambling registration. In practice that shuts out affiliates, comparison sites and other promotional publishers that send traffic to operators without holding an operating licence themselves, even when the operator they promote is certified.
Google has not listed the countries in which the Masthead change applies. Trade press analysis of the notice has pointed out that earlier announcements on gambling ads in Google TV and Masthead placements named specific markets, while this one does not. Masthead creative is also reviewed individually, so certification alone does not guarantee approval.
Certification itself is country by country. Google requires gambling advertisers to show they hold the appropriate licence from the regulator in each market they target, and to restrict ads to those jurisdictions. That means the Masthead opening will only matter in regulated markets where Google already accepts online gambling ads, and only for operators that have completed the process there.
Part of a wider recalibration
Google’s standard policy has long barred gambling promotion in a handful of formats, including Gmail ads, Shopping ads and Masthead placements. The company has spent 2026 tightening the certification rules that sit underneath its gambling ad policy, starting in March with new requirements for online gambling advertisers and extending them across categories in September.
The Masthead change runs the other way, adding inventory for operators that have cleared those tighter checks. It gives licensed brands access to one of the most visible and expensive placements in digital advertising.
Timing against tighter ad rules
The move arrives as gambling advertising faces mounting restrictions in several of the markets where operators would most want to use it. Denmark has tabled a whistle-to-whistle ban on gambling ads during live sport alongside curbs on affiliate marketing. France has added new sign-off requirements for gambling ad campaigns, and in the UK a House of Lords committee has called for a ban on gambling advertising, a recommendation the industry has challenged.
Platform policy is also under pressure from regulators and industry bodies focused on the black market. In the Netherlands, the Dutch online gambling association VNLOK has taken Meta to court over ads for illegal gambling, while Nordic operator Paf has launched a pilot with Meta aimed at curbing unlicensed gambling promotion.
By tying Masthead access to formal certification and excluding unregistered promoters, Google’s change is likely to favour the largest licensed brands with the budgets to buy premium reach. Operators will be watching for confirmation of which markets are covered once the policy takes effect on 21 October.
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