PointsBet Holdings has warned that its first-half revenue will fall by about 16%, with the Australian-listed bookmaker blaming tighter compliance controls on its most valuable customers and a run of poor results on AFL betting. The company, which is majority owned by Japan’s MIXI, told the Australian Securities Exchange on 13 October that it expects group revenue of approximately A$113m for H1 FY27, down from roughly A$135m in the prior corresponding period.

The half covers the six months from 1 April to 30 September 2026. PointsBet also guided to a Normalised EBITDA loss of between A$6m and A$8m for the period, according to its trading update. Full H1 FY27 results are due on 30 October 2026.

Australia drives the decline

According to the filing, the fall in group revenue was attributable entirely to the Australian business. PointsBet said the result reflected a continuation of two themes it set out at its FY26 annual general meeting in August.

The first is what the company described as the continued strengthening of its compliance standards. It reported a sustained trend of double-digit declines in turnover and revenue against the prior period throughout the half from its highest-value client cohort, which it attributed to proactive compliance actions. PointsBet said it believed these were important decisions to make given an increasingly complex regulatory environment in Australia.

The second is a deliberate push to grow mass-market sports actives, a strategy the company acknowledged can produce short-term volatility in net win margins. PointsBet said it recorded consistent gains in mass-market sports actives, turnover and structural net win margin against the prior period, but these were eroded by negative variance in actual net win margin across the half. It singled out adverse results on key sports in August and September, primarily AFL.

The update did not break out segment revenue for Australia or Canada, and gave no prior-period EBITDA comparison for the April to September 2025 window. Those figures are expected with the half-year accounts at the end of the month.

Alberta still to come

The trading update made no reference to Canada beyond confirming the decline was Australian. At the August AGM, Group CEO Andrew Catterall said PointsBet had migrated its Canadian iGaming platform to Bede in Q1 FY27 and unified its marketing model across both markets. “The combination of these two choices to migrate to Bede and to unify our Marketing model will enable TAM expansion with an efficient entry into the newly regulated province of Alberta, planned for H2 FY27,” he told shareholders, according to the AGM address.

H2 FY27 runs from October 2026 to March 2027, meaning Alberta, where PointsBet opened customer pre-registration in February 2026, has yet to contribute to group revenue. Canada has been the group’s growth engine: in the nine months to 31 March 2026, Canadian revenue rose 13% to A$34.6m, with iGaming net win up 28%, while Australia generated A$152.0m.

MIXI era reporting

The H1 FY27 update is the first full-period market update since PointsBet changed its financial year-end from 30 June to 31 March to align with MIXI, which holds a 66.4% controlling stake following its takeover in 2025. Its FY26 annual report therefore covered only the nine months from July 2025 to March 2026, a period in which group revenue was A$186.6m and Normalised EBITDA was a loss of A$0.8m.

Chairman Brett Paton told the AGM that FY26 had been “a year of significant transition” for the business, covering the move to MIXI ownership, the change in reporting cycle and the appointment of Catterall as Group CEO in February 2026, replacing co-founder Sam Swanell. The company has not provided full-year FY27 guidance.

Trade outlets including SBC News and iGaming Next reported the revenue warning, with the latter noting that the expected EBITDA loss compares unfavourably with the small loss posted across FY26.

What happens next

The warning lands as Australian wagering operators prepare for the federal gambling advertising reform package recently passed by Parliament. Catterall said at the AGM that the post-reform operating model for licensed operators would become “even more complicated and more expensive”, and urged the government to ensure agencies can block illegal offshore operators.

For PointsBet, the 30 October results will show how much of the H1 slide came from the high-value cohort versus AFL results, and whether Canadian growth on the Bede platform is holding up. The timing of the Alberta launch within H2 FY27 is likely to be the key question for investors, as the company leans on Canada to offset a shrinking Australian top line.

BetMGM, the US online sports betting and iGaming joint venture of MGM Resorts International and Entain, grew net revenue by 7% to $710m in the third quarter of 2026 and more than doubled Adjusted EBITDA, according to a business update published on 13 October. The company reiterated its full-year guidance but again said it expects to finish towards the lower end of both ranges.

Adjusted EBITDA rose 112% to $86m, from $41m in the third quarter of 2025, while contribution increased 32% to $175m. The company described the period as a strong quarter in which disciplined execution continued to drive profitable growth.

iGaming carries the business

iGaming net revenue rose 6% year on year to $483m, roughly two thirds of the group total. Online sports net revenue grew 7% to $216m on handle of $3.24bn, up 3%, with the company citing a World Cup engagement boost and an upgraded sportsbook ahead of the NFL season. Retail and other revenue was flat at $11m.

Average monthly active players fell 3% to 878,000, from 902,000 a year earlier, meaning growth came from higher spend per player rather than a larger customer base. BetMGM put its share of gross gaming revenue across its active markets at around 14%, made up of about 20% in iGaming and 8% in online sports.

For the first nine months of 2026, net revenue rose 5% to $2.12bn and Adjusted EBITDA climbed 24% to $185m. iGaming revenue for the period was up 8% at $1.45bn, while online sports increased 4% to $647m.

The joint venture returned $68m in cash to its parents during the quarter, comprising $18m in parent fees and $50m in distributions to Entain and MGM Resorts. Capital expenditure was $4m in the quarter and $26m year to date.

Among operational highlights, BetMGM pointed to its multi-product launch in Alberta, where it said per-player metrics were trending above those it recorded at launch in Ontario. It also said new Game of Thrones titles, rolled out across the US, Ontario and Alberta, had been its most successful game franchise launch, and that a refresh of the Borgata brand had lifted average daily actives by 28%.

Guidance and prediction markets

BetMGM kept its 2026 guidance of $2.9bn to $3.1bn in net revenue and $300m to $350m in Adjusted EBITDA, and said it remained on track to land towards the lower end of both. The revenue range had already been cut from $3.1bn to $3.2bn when the company reported its first quarter in April. The company said it remains confident of reaching $500m in Adjusted EBITDA in the coming years.

The cautious outlook reflects pressure from federally regulated prediction markets, which have been spending heavily to acquire sports customers in the US. On the earnings call, chief executive Adam Greenblatt said the competitive environment remained intense and that BetMGM had narrowed its marketing to iGaming, multi-product states and higher-value players, pulling back acquisition spend in sportsbook-only markets. According to reports of the call, he said the company had meaningfully reduced direct online sportsbook acquisition spending over several quarters while holding its 8% share of sports GGR.

Greenblatt said he expects the competitive pressure to last until at least mid-2027, and that he hopes the US Supreme Court will settle whether states can regulate sports event contracts during its 2026-27 term. The court has not yet decided whether to hear the dispute, although the NFL and the American Gaming Association are among the parties urging it to do so. Greenblatt noted that most lower-court cases have gone in favour of states, attorneys general and tribes.

“I think the key test is whether this was the intent of Congress, and I think that that will be shown to not be the case,” Greenblatt told analysts.

He also played down a recent Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposal to exclude casino-style event contracts from the definition of a swap, arguing that the regulator could reverse the change as easily as it made it, and that the risk to BetMGM’s iGaming business had not gone away.

What comes next

The figures are unaudited and have not been reviewed by the company’s independent accountants. Entain is due to report its own third-quarter trading on 15 October, with MGM Resorts following on 28 October. With iGaming now generating most of its revenue and contribution, BetMGM’s results are increasingly tied to the small number of states that permit online casino, while its sports business waits on a Supreme Court decision that may not arrive before mid-2027.

Betfred generated turnover of £995.6m in the 52 weeks to 29 March 2026, according to its latest accounts filed at Companies House, with its online business now accounting for close to half of the group’s revenue.

Retail contributed 55% of turnover in the period, down from 61% a year earlier, with online making up the remaining 45%. The shift continues a long-running rebalancing for the family-owned bookmaker, which built its business on the high street.

The group traces its roots to a single shop opened by brothers Fred and Peter Done in Salford in 1967, and it remains privately controlled by the Done family. It grew into one of the largest retail estates in British betting, adding the Tote in 2011, and has since built out its online sportsbook and casino to compete with the listed groups that dominate UK digital betting.

A change of year-end

The headline numbers are not directly comparable with the prior set of accounts. Betfred moved its year-end from September to March, so the comparative period covers 78 weeks to 30 March 2025. On a like-for-like 12-month basis, group turnover rose by £23.3m, according to the filing as reported by the trade press. Management attributed part of the growth to higher marketing spend aimed at increasing market share and attracting new customers.

Gross profit for the year came in at £719.9m. Operating profit was £74.1m after a one-off £4.6m charge for aborted acquisition costs, and EBITDA was £140.6m. Profit after tax was £39.6m, as reported by SBC News.

Exceptional charges totalled £7.1m, including the aborted deal and £801,000 of closure costs for a foreign subsidiary linked to the US business the group wound down in 2023-24. Betfred had earlier sold its Spanish online business, booking a £1.6m profit on the disposal.

Costs and headcount

Employee costs rose by £19.2m on a like-for-like basis, driven largely by minimum wage increases. Employee numbers edged down to 7,795 from 7,872. The group’s tax charge fell to £24.4m from £59.8m in the longer prior period.

Betfred again declined to provide a geographical breakdown of earnings, with directors stating that doing so would be “severely prejudicial to the interests of the group”.

Tax pressure ahead

The accounts close just before the rise in Remote Gaming Duty to 40%, which took effect in April 2026, so the hit to the online business is not yet reflected in the numbers. The remote betting rate of General Betting Duty is due to rise in April 2027.

The bigger risk for Betfred sits in its shops. Founder Fred Done has been one of the most vocal opponents of a proposed doubling of Machine Games Duty, telling the Financial Times that such a rise would lead the business to close 495 shops within a year, costing 2,575 jobs. In August, Betfred said it was consulting on the possible closure of up to 132 UK shops as part of its response to the tax changes already announced.

The Betting and Gaming Council has warned this week that raising MGD to 40% could cost up to 16,000 jobs across the sector. With retail still producing the majority of Betfred’s turnover, the outcome of the Budget will weigh heavily on whether the online shift accelerates by choice or by force.